Castellanos’ days in Detroit, at 3B, could be numbered

Diplomacy will be the rule as Nick Castellanos’ future at third base is plotted by the Tigers front office.

Polite respect will be paid, even as the Tigers clearly move toward replacing him at third, perhaps as early as next spring. Castellanos’ fate is all but certain. He will either move to the outfield or, perhaps more likely, be traded.

The Tigers no longer are pretending that Castellanos’ defense, which is at the lowest end of big-league defensive analyses, is a negative the team, or Castellanos’ often-explosive bat, can overcome.

In both of their big July trades, the Tigers were careful to include a third-base prospect in each deal. Sunday’s trade that sent Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs was headed by 23-year-old Jeimer Candalario, a switch-hitter whose primary position happens to be third.

It is a position as ticklish for Tigers general manager Al Avila as it is for Castellanos. The parties mutually like and respect each other. They appreciate the paths the Tigers as well as Castellanos together have traipsed seven years after he was the team’s top pick in the 2010 draft.

But his 15 errors are four more than any other big-league third baseman. The miscues could be absorbed if Castellanos were covering more square yardage on the infield’s left side. But only Yunel Escobar of the Angels is rated as having poorer range than Castellanos’ range-factor of 2.13, as measured by MLB.com.

Fangraphs.com’s more comprehensive and refined defensive stats likewise show something of an overall decline in his glove and in his throwing arm since 2014, his rookie year with the Tigers. Castellanos that spring returned to third base following a two-year experiment in the outfield necessitated when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder looked to be long-term fixtures at the Tigers’ corner infield posts.

Fangraphs.com, for example, shows a steep drop in Castellanos’ percentage of ground balls a third baseman “likely” can be expected to handle: from 73.1 percent in 2016, to 52.9 in 2017.

Dan Szymborski, an ESPN.com baseball analyst, and inventor of the ZiPS method for projecting player performances, says the Tigers’ motivation for shifting Castellanos is self-evident and affirmed by such statistics at Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

“Defensive stats can be quite volatile when we’re not talking a lot of time,” Szymborski said, “so it makes sense to take fielding numbers — even the most advanced ones — with a grain of salt for the short-term.

“But Castellanos now has over 4,000 innings at third, and his uniformly terrible defensive numbers (13 runs below-average a year by UZR, 16 runs by Baseball Info Solutions), are very likely in the neighborhood of his abilities there.”

Evaluation period

The Tigers appear to agree.

Avila tactfully talked Monday about Castellanos and about two trades that, not coincidentally, brought two potential replacements to the Tigers.

“Right now, we’re going to evaluate the club,” Avila said, speaking of his team’s makeover. “We’re going to see what we have in the players that we just got, and we’ll determine what their future is going to be.

“Right now,” Avila said, with all but a bow to Castellanos, “Nick is at third base. He’s our third baseman, and we will continue to evaluate our players. Then we’ll go into the offseason and see what we’re going to do as we move forward.”

Castellanos, who knows what’s up, opted, too, for a noble, team-first outlook when he was quizzed during this week’s series at New York.

“I’ll do whatever they need,” Castellanos said. “They know that I’m not somebody that makes it about myself and my position — am I this, or am I that? At the end of the day, whatever makes the team better and helps the Tigers win, I’m going to do it with a smile, you know?

“I just want to play. That’s it. Wherever it is.”

How the Tigers deploy Castellanos when and if a new starter sets up at third is not yet clear, even to his bosses.

First base has seemed for some Tigers students to be a logical move. Cabrera, though, is all but a permanent structure there, not only because he is under contract into the next decade, but because his defense remains solid.

Victor Martinez is, in the same manner, signed for another year as the Tigers’ designated hitter.

That leaves the outfield. And it so happens the Tigers have an opening, in right field, following the trade of J.D. Martinez to Arizona.

Outfield an option?

The problem there is twofold. Outfield was never Castellanos’ natural position nor did he find great comfort there during his minor-league trial. Similarly, outfield defense demands a skill set Castellanos isn’t likely to bring, either in terms of range or firing relays to the infield.

Avila is expected to make right field a target during his upcoming offseason safari when a rebuilding team continues to chase younger, more athletic position personnel.

Castellanos, who turned 25 last March, has had an off-year at the plate in 2017. But he has been something of a statistical anomaly this season, hitting the ball harder than his .243 batting average and .749 OPS might imply.

His line-drive rate has been one of baseball’s best and follows a 2016 season when he had a breakout year: .285, .827 OPS, and 18 home runs.

His age, power, and acknowledged hitting smarts could make him an appealing trade piece two years from free agency — if a team sees in him a lineup spot the Tigers aren’t as easily identifying.

Two big-league scouts from rival teams have seen Castellanos with some frequency in 2017. Each scout asked not to be identified because of sensitivities between his club and the Tigers.

One scout said there had been a regression in Castellanos’ defense from 2016, but that age and upside would make him a reasonable trade target, especially given the big-league teams that are less than thrilled with their present third basemen.

The scout said Castellanos’ arm was indeed puzzling and that his throws to first were not as strong as in the past, when even then his arm was still considered a notch below average. But the scout believed Castellanos’ issues were, in his view, fixable and might be tied to footwork that could benefit from different approaches.

A separate scout marveled at Castellanos’ improvement in 2016, both at the plate and in the field, and was bewildered by the 2017 falloff.

Third base, the scout noted, is a pivotal defensive position and doesn’t suffer players with scant range.

The difficulty, he acknowledged, in moving Castellanos to right field is that the same defensive deficit Detroit is experiencing at third will simply transfer to another position.

The scout mentioned that J.D. Martinez’s work in right was universally panned but that it would be markedly better than Castellanos could be expected to deliver.

This is a player, the scout said, who is in a kind of no-man’s land, minus a position. And yet, he, too, believes Castellanos can find new life with a new club, particularly when a different ballpark promises Castellanos less frustration and greater numbers for a hitter who should, in the scout’s view, hit 25-28 home runs a season.

Each scout’s advice to the Tigers: Trade him, for the good of both parties.

Szymborski tends to agree, suggesting another team — or even the Tigers — could gain by thinking seriously of Castellanos as an outfielder.

“It starts to make sense to see if he can perhaps play a corner better than expected.,” Szymborski said. “Essentially, if he’s 15 runs a year worse than the average at third base, if he can be better than five runs a year worse than average at an outfield corner, he’s more valuable there.”

Avila and his team appear open to any creative ideas. It simply isn’t clear how Castellanos will fit into a GM’s plan to change the Tigers’ overall competitive and financial profile.

The Tigers have immense regard for Castellanos and his makeup, as well as for his bat, which could yet be a heavy weapon, either in Detroit or elsewhere.

But the chances of it happening elsewhere have increased. All because Castellanos’ position options, at Comerica Park anyway, have seemingly decreased during a year neither party saw coming.

lynn.henning@detroitnews.com

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